Explainer: Why Did Israel Choose to Invade Lebanon Now?

An Explainer for UPSC Civil Service Exam Aspirants

The Israel-Lebanon conflict has re-emerged as a focal point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israel’s recent military escalation against Hezbollah, the Shia militant group based in Lebanon, raises questions about the timing, motivations, and broader implications. This detailed explainer aims to provide UPSC aspirants with insightful content about the underlying dynamics, Israel's strategy, Hezbollah's response, and the ripple effects on the region.

Israel's Geopolitical Opportunity

Israel has chosen this moment to act due to a convergence of geopolitical factors that have created an ideal environment to press against Hezbollah. These factors include:

1. U.S. Support and Regional Stability

   
   

   • Over the past year, Israel has enjoyed steady support from the United States during its ongoing conflict in Gaza. Despite occasional political disagreements, the U.S. has provided sustained arms supplies, creating a security umbrella for Israel to act decisively.

   • The new normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab countries (through the Abraham Accords) has also altered regional dynamics. Arab nations like the UAE and Bahrain, which have historically supported Palestinian groups, have now limited themselves to diplomatic criticism and have not imposed any significant punitive measures on Israel. This lack of economic or political backlash has emboldened Israel to expand its operations.

   
   

2. Iran's Strategic Patience

   
   

   • With Iran's new government focused on domestic economic recovery and easing Western sanctions, Tehran has adopted a stance of "strategic patience." Despite Israel's assassination of key Iranian-aligned figures like Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iran has avoided direct confrontation, which Israel sees as a temporary weakness.

   • This has led Israel to expand air strikes and assassinations of top leaders of the so-called "axis of resistance"—Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis—culminating in the killing of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This window of limited retaliation from Iran has emboldened Israel further.

   
   

3. Pushing Hezbollah North

   
   

   • Hezbollah is viewed as the most proximate threat to Israel, located in Lebanon to the north. Israel has long aimed to push Hezbollah to the north of the Litani River, in line with the UN Security Council's Resolution 1701. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated this objective in late 2023. With Hezbollah's senior leadership significantly weakened, Israel now seeks to degrade the group's rank-and-file capabilities.

Hezbollah's Evolution and Strategic Position

Hezbollah has evolved significantly since its last full-scale conflict with Israel in 2006:

1. Combat Experience and Arsenal

   
   

   • Hezbollah has gained substantial combat experience by participating in the Syrian Civil War, where it fought alongside Syrian government forces and the Russians. This experience has bolstered its military capabilities and made it one of the most effective fighting forces in Syria.

   • The group has also accumulated a vast arsenal of rockets and missiles. Israeli estimates suggest Hezbollah has around 25,000 active fighters and tens of thousands more in reserve. Hezbollah’s combat effectiveness remains intact, as evidenced by its recent battlefield success, inflicting casualties on Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).

   
   

2. Political Integration and Popularity

   
   

   • Hezbollah has integrated itself into Lebanese politics and society, providing services where the state has failed. It has maintained a base of support due to its "resistance" narrative against Israeli aggression, despite facing criticism over economic mismanagement and its role in the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

   • Israel's invasion risks bolstering Hezbollah's popularity, as it can once again present itself as Lebanon's defender against external aggression. This dynamic complicates Israel's objective of eradicating Hezbollah's influence.

Objectives: What Do Israel and Hezbollah Aim to Achieve?

1. Israel's Aims

• Neutralising Hezbollah: Israel's primary objective is to secure its northern border by pushing Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and beyond the Litani River. By degrading Hezbollah's leadership and military capacity, Israel aims to create a buffer zone and reduce the immediate threat posed by the group's rockets and guerrilla fighters.

• Exploiting the Geopolitical Window: Israel seeks to capitalise on this unique geopolitical moment, which involves minimal backlash from Arab states and calculated non-response from Iran, to achieve a "decisive victory."

2. Hezbollah's Aims

• Survival and Resistance: For Hezbollah, victory lies in mere survival. As long as the group can continue resisting Israeli forces, it can claim success. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once famously said, "as long as there is one fighter who fires…the resistance (muqawamah) still exists."

• Boosting Domestic Legitimacy: By standing up against Israeli military power, Hezbollah can consolidate its position in Lebanon, despite the criticism it faces domestically for its involvement in regional conflicts and Lebanon's economic downturn.

The Costs of Conflict: Israel's Risks and International Reactions

1. Protracted Conflict and Attrition

   
   

   • Pushing deeper into Lebanon could lead to a prolonged and costly conflict for Israel. Hezbollah's guerrilla tactics, bolstered by its experience in urban warfare, could turn this into a war of attrition, similar to the 2006 conflict that ended in a stalemate.

   
   

2. International Criticism

   • The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which includes a 900-strong Indian contingent, has criticised Israel's actions. The Lebanese government has also condemned the invasion. These criticisms could lead to increased international pressure, especially if civilian casualties rise.

   • Additionally, the Lebanese Army's involvement in direct combat with the IDF marks a significant escalation, signalling the potential for a broader regional conflict.

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UPSC Googly: UNIFIL and India's Role

A significant yet often overlooked aspect of the conflict is the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Established to monitor the cessation of hostilities and support Lebanese sovereignty, UNIFIL's presence in southern Lebanon plays a crucial role in maintaining peace. India's contributions to UNIFIL, with nearly 900 troops on the ground, underscore India's active participation in global peacekeeping efforts.

Potential UPSC Question: "Discuss the role of UN peacekeeping forces in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, with a special focus on India’s contributions and its foreign policy implications."

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Furious Points for UPSC Preparation

1. UN Security Council Resolution 1701: Understand its importance in managing the Israel-Lebanon conflict and the role of the UN in ensuring compliance by both parties.

2. Hezbollah's Transformation: Analyse how Hezbollah has evolved from a militia into a political actor in Lebanon, and its role in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

3. Middle Eastern Diplomacy: Examine the impact of the Abraham Accords on the Israel-Palestine conflict and how normalisation of ties between Israel and Arab states has influenced Israel's foreign policy.

4. India's Peacekeeping Contributions: Evaluate India's role in UN peacekeeping missions, especially in volatile regions like Lebanon, and its significance for India's global image and diplomatic standing.

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Israel's decision to escalate its military campaign against Hezbollah is driven by a confluence of favorable geopolitical conditions and longstanding strategic goals. While Israel aims to neutralise the threat posed by Hezbollah and secure its northern borders, Hezbollah seeks to survive and reinforce its image as a resistance movement. The unfolding conflict not only affects regional stability but also has global implications, including for India, given its peacekeeping role in Lebanon.

For UPSC aspirants, understanding the motivations, strategies, and consequences of such conflicts is key to gaining insights into international relations, conflict dynamics, and India's foreign policy responses.

Potential UPSC Questions:

1. "Analyse the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its impact on Israel-Lebanon relations."

2. "Evaluate the significance of the Abraham Accords in altering the dynamics of the Middle East."

3. "Discuss India's contributions to UN peacekeeping missions, with special reference to its role in Lebanon."